Analyse de sensibilité et robustesse paramétrique d'un modèle flou successoral en contexte pluraliste : une approche par simulation pour la médiation des conflits d'héritage en République Démocratique du Congo

Registration ID: IJNRD_325545

Published ID: IJNRD2605658

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Caleb Ngoie, KATEMBO MUKOKOMA

Logique floue, analyse de sensibilité, calibration paramétrique, succession, pluralisme juridique, système d'aide à la décision, médiation, République Démocratique du Congo.

Cet article propose une analyse approfondie de la sensibilité et de la robustesse paramétrique d'un modèle d'aide à la décision successorale basé sur la logique floue [1], [2], dans un contexte pluraliste caractérisé par l'incertitude, la variabilité des normes et la complexité des relations généalogiques [3]. Le modèle étudié intègre un ensemble structuré de variables d'entrée, combinées à travers un score global pondéré et une base de règles floues, afin de produire une décision relative à la répartition successorale. L'étude se concentre sur l'impact des paramètres internes du système, notamment les pondérations des règles, les coefficients du score global et les paramètres des fonctions d'appartenance [4], sur la stabilité des décisions produites. Une formalisation mathématique du modèle est proposée, permettant de dériver des indicateurs de sensibilité locale et normalisée, ainsi que des mesures globales de stabilité [5]. Une attention particulière est accordée à la stabilité du classement des héritiers, analysée à travers des configurations paramétriques multiples. Des indicateurs tels que les marges décisionnelles, les gradients de sensibilité et les seuils d'inversion sont introduits afin de caractériser la robustesse du classement face aux perturbations des paramètres [6]. L'étude met en évidence que la stabilité du modèle dépend fortement de l'équilibre entre les pondérations, la calibration des coefficients et la forme des fonctions d'appartenance. Les résultats montrent que certaines configurations paramétriques peuvent induire des inversions de classement pour de faibles variations, révélant des zones de fragilité décisionnelle. À l'inverse, des marges suffisantes entre les scores des héritiers garantissent une robustesse accrue du système. L'approche proposée permet ainsi d'identifier les situations critiques et d'améliorer la fiabilité du processus décisionnel [7]. En conclusion, ce travail fournit un cadre analytique rigoureux pour l'évaluation de la stabilité des modèles flous appliqués à la succession, et contribue à renforcer leur pertinence dans des contextes complexes où les décisions doivent concilier des critères multiples et parfois contradictoires [8].

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Caleb Ngoie & KATEMBO MUKOKOMA (May-2026). Analyse de sensibilité et robustesse paramétrique d'un modèle flou successoral en contexte pluraliste : une approche par simulation pour la médiation des conflits d'héritage en République Démocratique du Congo. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, 11(5), g409-g424. https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2605658.pdf

Volume 11 Issue 5, May-2026

Pages : g409-g424

Paper Reg. ID: IJNRD_325545

Published Paper Id: IJNRD2605658

Research Area: Mathematics All

Author Type: Foreign Author

Country: Kinshasa, rdc, Congo, The Democratic Republic of The

Published Paper PDF: https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2605658.pdf

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