SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN EXPANSION AND ITS EFFECTS ON VEGETATION COVER IN NYAMAGABE DISTRICT (2000-2024)

Registration ID: IJNRD_325947

Published ID: IJNRD2606077

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Petronille MUTUYUBUTATU, Dr. Aboubakar GASIRABO

GIS, Land Use Change, Spatio-temporal Analysis, Urban Expansion, Vegetation Cover.

Urban expansion in Rwanda has intensified over the past two decades, particularly in secondary cities such as Nyamagabe District, where rapid population growth and infrastructural development have transformed the landscape. Despite this expansion, limited empirical research has assessed how urban growth affects vegetation cover, ecological stability, and sustainable land use at the district level. This study examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Nyamagabe District between 2000 and 2024 and investigated its impacts on vegetation cover. Using a descriptive and analytical research design, Landsat-based satellite imagery for 2000, 2008, 2016, and 2024 was employed to generate Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets. Remote sensing and GIS techniques, including supervised classification, post-classification change detection, and NDVI computation, quantified land cover transitions and vegetation health trends. Complementary qualitative data from 18 key informants, including sector land and environmental officers and district planners, provided contextual insights into the drivers and consequences of vegetation change. Structured interviews and focus group discussions identified key drivers of vegetation loss, including housing development, informal settlement expansion, agricultural conversion, and weak enforcement of land use regulations. The results revealed that built-up areas increased from 0.76 km² in 2000 to 50.46 km² in 2024, while forest cover declined by approximately 320.91 km², and grassland expanded dramatically, reflecting widespread land degradation and secondary succession. NDVI analysis showed fluctuating vegetation health, with persistent declines in healthy vegetation, particularly in peri-urban zones. The study concluded that urban expansion is the primary driver of vegetation loss in Nyamagabe District, although national policies such as the National Land Use and Development Master Plan and the National Forest Policy have contributed to partial vegetation recovery. These findings underscore the need for integrated land-use planning, strengthened policy implementation, and community-based restoration programs, providing evidence-based guidance for promoting sustainable urban development while safeguarding ecological integrity in rapidly transforming districts of Rwanda.

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Petronille MUTUYUBUTATU & Dr. Aboubakar GASIRABO (June-2026). SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN EXPANSION AND ITS EFFECTS ON VEGETATION COVER IN NYAMAGABE DISTRICT (2000-2024). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NOVEL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, 11(6), a725-a735. https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2606077.pdf

Volume 11 Issue 6, June-2026

Pages : a725-a735

Paper Reg. ID: IJNRD_325947

Published Paper Id: IJNRD2606077

Research Area: Other area not in list

Author Type: Foreign Author

Country: Nyamabuye Sector, Rwanda, Rwanda

Published Paper PDF: https://ijnrd.org/papers/IJNRD2606077.pdf

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